This weekend, we have a 12-fight card at Beijing, China.
The tournaments are a lot smaller on DraftKings this week, so I think it's a great week to focus more on cash games.
The most important GPP is an $8 entry that pays $10K into 1st place.
That's the best one to chase in my opinion.
I will have a couple LUs that I placed into a great deal of GPPs hoping I will win all of them, but I will not have many LUs in total this week.
Other than that, most of my play this week will probably be in the money games.
With that said, here are a couple of plays I like for UFC Beijing, in addition to my fade of the week.
Money Game play of this week -- Song Yadong ($9,100) I believe Song Yadong might be the best drama on the card that weekend and you will find 4 fighters priced higher than him.
Yadong is a -500 favored on Saturday and I think that is a fight the UFC is wanting him to triumph in his home country.
I believe in championships, Yadong will be the highest owned fighter on the card with 3 women fighters priced above him, with substantially smaller chances of winning ITD.
I believe that you can make a case to fade him due to his possession in GPPs, but in cash games we do not care about possession.
I believe that this is a great place to lock in a triumph and maybe ~100-points, then try to find 3 more wins which we can afford.
More frequently than not 4 wins gets the work done in money games.
GPP play of the week -- Rashad Coulter ($8,400) This fight has got the 2nd highest FDGTD line on the card at -400.
There is also value on Hu Yaozong together with him $600 cheaper and the betting line being almost even.
Normally when there is value like that within an underdog it makes them one of the more popular fighters on the card.
I don't think both of those guys are UFC level fighters, but I am a bit more impressed with what I have seen from Coulter compared to the inexperienced Yaozong.
I believe getting Coulter at GPP lineups at a lower ownership than Yaozong makes sense that weekend at a fight which shouldn't go all 3-rounds.
If both of these guys get an early end they will probably be about the winning lineup.
I am imagining Coulter will be the lower owned man of the two and that is what makes him my GPP play of this week.
Underdog drama of the week -- Francis Ngannou ($7,500) There really aren't many underdogs I love to target this week for UFC Beijing.
I have not loved creating lineups this week since I hate plugging in two underdogs once I think virtually every favorite will find a win.
I believe the best underdog to target this week is Francis Ngannou since he has a clear route to success and he has won in this matchup before.
The path to success for Ngannou is by knockout, and he has got the power in order to KO anyone on Earth.
If he can find a KO at $7.
5k then he probably ends up on the 1st spot lineup, especially if it's an early KO.
From the first fight between both of these men Blaydes was able to get 2 takedowns, but Ngannou managed to get up pretty fast each time.
If he's in a position to get up like that again here, then I don't find any way Blaydes are going to have the aerobic to try and wrestle for 5-rounds.
I think Ngannou is the scarier guy on the toes and I don't see Blaydes wanting to strike for extended periods of time.
I think Ngannou is live for an upset here but onto a cardI don't enjoy many underdogs I think he's the best one to target with his 1st round KO upside.
Fade of the week -- Lauren Mueller ($9,200) I really don't enjoy targeting at least one of these ladies in the 9k selection.
I believe that they need to all get wins, but I do not see any of them getting 10x their wages.
For Mueller, she would want at least 92 DK things to hit 10x and that I believe she's to get a conclusion to make that happen.
Mueller has 5 wins her MMA record and just 1 of the wins didn't go to decision.
She also only scored 72 DK points in her UFC win.
If she scores 72 at $9.
2k then she won't be winning anyone a championship.
In addition, I think Zhang and Xiaonan have better chances of winning than Mueller does so that's why I chose her over those two as my fade of this week.
I won't be making a lot of lineups this week but if I was making 20 lineups then Mueller would be on among them.
If you'd like my full-card DraftKings breakdown using analysis on each struggle, my private approaches & recommendations, and also my pick prediction for every single fight then it is possible to discover that under the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker should you click on Upcoming Picks.
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